EUCP is at EGU!

EUCP Updates


This year, much of the EUCP work will be presented at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly (19th-30th April).

We’ve extracted all EUCP presentations below, which we will be promoting on Twitter during the #vEGU21 conference using the hashtag #EUCPatEGU21.

We hope you come and join us!

Note that the times below are in CEST.


Monday 26th April

Session: Improved Understanding of Ocean Variability and Climate


  • Presentation: Interaction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Sub-Polar Gyre on decadal timescale
    • Stephen Ogungbenro, Leonard Borchert, Sebastian Brune, Vimal Koul, Levke Caesar, and André Düsterhus
    • 11:24–11:26

Session: Spatio-temporal data science: advances in computational geosciences and innovative evaluation tools for weather and climate science


  • Presentation: Recent developments on the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool
    • Bouwe Andela, Fakhereh Alidoost, Lukas Brunner, Jaro Camphuijsen, Bas Crezee, Niels Drost, Bettina Gier, Birgit Hassler, Peter Kalverla, Axel Lauer, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Ruth Lorenz, Valeriu Predoi, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Stef Smeets, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost Von Hardenberg, Katja Weigel, and Klaus Zimmermann
    • 09:26-09:28
  • Presentation: Bringing ESMValTool to the Jupyter Lab
    • Peter C. Kalverla, Stef Smeets, Niels Drost, Bouwe Andela, Fakhereh Alidoost, and Jaro Camphuijsen
    • 09:28-9:30

Session: Predictions of climate from seasonal to (multi)decadal timescales (S2D) and their applications

(09:00 – 10:30) – EUCP co-conveners: Panos Athanasiadis, Leonard Borchert, Leon Hermanson

  • Presentation: Skillful Dynamical-Statistical Predictions of European Summer Temperature
    • Juliette Mignot, Leonard Borchert, Vimal Koul, Björn Mayer, Matthew Menary, Giovanni Sgubin, and Didier Swingedouw
    • 09:02–09:04
  • Presentation: Role of SST for the predictability of summer atmospheric teleconnections in the Euro-Atlantic region with Self-Organising Maps
    • Julianna Carvalho Oliveira, Leonard Borchert, Vimal Koul, Johanna Baehr, and Eduardo Zorita
    • 09:26–09:28
  • Presentation: Developing prototype decadal climate prediction services
    • Nick Dunstone, Panos Athanasiadis, Louis-Philippe Caron, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Barbara Frueh, Leon Hermanson, Julia Lockwood, Klaus Pankatz, Andreas Paxian, Katja Reinhardt, Adam Scaife, Doug Smith, Balakrishnan Solaraju, Hazel Thornton, and Eirini Tsartsali
    • 09:32-09:34

Session: Regional Climate Modeling, Including CORDEX

(09:00 – 12:30)

  • Presentation: Can Convection‐Permitting Models really Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections ?
    • Giorgia Fosser, Marianna Adinolfi, Nikolina Ban, Danijel Belusic, Ségolène Berthou, Cécile Caillaud, Rita M. Cardoso, Erika Coppola, Hylke De Vries, Andreas Dobler, Hendrik Feldmann, Klaus Goergen, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Geert Lenderink, Hans-Juergen Panitz, Emanuela Pichelli, Pedro M. M. Soares, Samuel Somot, Merja H. Tölle, and Jesus Vergara-Temprado
    • 09:05-09:15
  • Presentation: Applying the new spatially distributed Added Value Index and Climate Change Downscaling Signal for Regional Climate Models to high-resolution EURO-CORDEX and convection permitting scale simulations
    • James Ciarlo, Erika Coppola, Emanuela Pichelli, and Jose Abraham Torres Alavez and the FPS-Conv Team
    • 11:18-11:20
  • Presentation: The Climate Response of Heavy Precipitation Events over the Alps and in the Mediterranean
    • Sebastian Müller, Emanuela Pichelli, Erika Coppola, Segolene Berthou, Susanne Brienen, Cécile Caillaud, Andreas Dobler, and Merja Tölle
    • 13:36-13:38
  • European daily precipitation according to EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) and high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)
    • Marie-Estelle Demory and Ségolène Berthou and the PRIMAVERA and EURO-CORDEX co-authors
    • 13:56-13:58

Tuesday 27th April

Session: Land–atmosphere interactions and climate extremes

(9:00 – 12:30)

  • Presentation: Understanding differences in land-atmosphere interactions between pan-European convection-permitting and parametrised climate models
    • Kate Halladay, Segolene Berthou, and Elizabeth Kendon
    • 11:34-11:36

Session: Hydrological Extremes: from droughts to floods

(9:00 – 15:00)

  • Presentation: Using convection-permitting climate models and a high-resolution distributed hydrological model to assess future changes in Alpine flash floods
    • Marjanne Zander, Pety Viguurs, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, and Albrecht Weerts
    • 13:42–13:44

Session: Stratospheric dynamics

(13:30 – 17:00)

  • Presentation: Stratospheric modulation of cold air outbreaks and winter storms in the North Atlantic region and impacts on predictability
    • Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Iuliia Polkova, Lukas Papritz, Paolo Ruggieri, Martin P. King, Panos Athanasiadis, Johanna Baehr, Ole Wulff, Michael Sprenger, and Daniela I.V. Domeisen
    • 15:36-15:38

Wednesday 28th April

Session: Earth Rotation: Theoretical aspects, observation of temporal variations and physical interpretation

(11:45 – 12:30)

  • Presentation: Long-Range Predictability of the Length of Day and Extratropical Climate
    • Adam Scaife, Leon Hermanson, Annelize van Niekerk, Mark Baldwin, Stephen Belcher, Philip Bett, Ruth Comer, Nick Dunstone, Ruth Geen, Steven Hardiman, Sarah Ineson, Jeff Knight, Yu Nie, Hongli Ren, and Smith Doug
    • 12:00-12:02

Session: Detecting and attributing climate change: trends, extreme events, and impacts

(13:30 – 17:00) – EUCP Chair: Aurelien Ribes

  • Presentation: Updated attribution of GSAT changes and implications
    • Aurélien Ribes, Saïd Qasmi, and Nathan Gillett
    • 13:37 – 13:39

Session: Bringing Together climate scientists and impact modellers to build knowledge to effectively deal with climate change

(15:30 – 17:00)

  • Presentation: Rainfall-runoff modeling of volcanic islands for future risk assessment (and beyond)
    • Albrecht Weerts, Frederiek Sperna, and Marjanne Zander
    • 15:57 – 15:59

Friday 30th April

Session: The North Atlantic: natural variability and global change

(11:00 – 17:00)

  • Presentation: How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?
    • Antje Weisheimer, Damien Decremer, David MacLeod, Chris O’Reilly, Tim Stockdale, Stephanie Johnson, and Tim Palmer
    • 11:05-11:15
  • Presentation: Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the 20th century
    • André Düsterhus, Leonard Borchert, Vimal Koul, Holger Pohlmann, and Sebastian Brune
    • Fri, 30 Apr, 11:15–11:17
  • Presentation: Atmospheric response to Gulf Stream SST front shifting: impact of horizontal resolution in an ensemble of global climate models
    • Luca Famooss Paolini, Alessio Bellucci, Paolo Ruggieri, Panos Athanasiadis, and Silvio Gualdi
    • 11:21-11:23

Session: Mid-latitude Cyclones and Storms: Diagnostics of Observed and Future Trends, and related Impacts

(13:30 – 15:00)

  • Presentation: Convection in future winter storms over northern Europe
    • Ségolène Berthou, Elizabeth Kendon, Malcolm Roberts, Benoît Vannière, Danijel Belušic, Cécile Caillaud, Andreas Dobler, Oskar Landgren, Colin Manning, and Jesus Vergara-Temprado
    • 13:35 – 13:45
  • Presentation: Midlatitude cyclones in convection permitting climate simulations: the added value offered for extreme wind speeds and sting-jets
    • Colin Manning, Elizabeth Kendon, Hayley Fowler, Nigel Roberts, Segolene Berthou, Dan Suri, and Malcom Roberts
    • 13:49-13:51

Session: Climate Variability and Prediction in High Latitudes

(13:30 -15:00)

  • The North Atlantic Ocean as a Modulator of Vegetation Greening/Browning in the Northern High Latitudes?
    • Leonard F. Borchert and Alexander J. Winkler
    • Fri, 30 Apr, 14:03–14:05

Session: Challenges in climate prediction: multiple time-scales and the Earth system dimensions

(15:30 – 17:00)

  • Presentation: Can a model weighting scheme be used to obtain skillful, reliable and  seamless climate information for the next 1-40 years?
    • Antje Weisheimer, Daniel J. Befort, Lukas Brunner, Leonard F. Borchert, Andrew P. Ballinger, Christopher H. O’Reilly, Gabi Hegerl, and Juliette Mignot
    • 15:40-15:42
  • Presentation: Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
    • Lukas Brunner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Anna L. Merrifield, Ruth Lorenz, and Reto Knutti
    • 16:06-16:08
  • Presentation: A multi-model ensemble weighting method (ClimWIP) in ESMValTool
    • Ruth Lorenz, Lukas Brunner, Peter Kalverla, Stef Smeets, Jaro Camphuijsen, and Bouwe Andela
    • 16:08-16:10

Session: Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations as Tools for Exploring Natural Variability, Change Signals, and Impacts


  • Presentation: Physical storylines of future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling
    • Karin van der Wiel, Geert Lenderink, and Hylke de Vries
    • 15:57-15:59