Description of work

WP4 will corroborate the EUCP System for and by end users (e.g., public sector policy makers, business organisations and other customers) and purveyors of downstream climate services. We will establish a reliable and quality-assured translation of climate predictions into impact indicators, co-designed and co- developed by relevant end users and purveyors. The indicators will support monitoring the progress for the SDGs, as well as the relevant targets of the EU Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk reduction (SFDRR). Indicators will be developed in support of various sectors/priority areas of the Global Framework for Climate Services (e.g., water, energy, agriculture and food security, disaster risk reduction, health, urban environments). Key-input for this analysis are the high resolution climate projections of rainfall, wind and other relevant variables provided as gridded time-series by WP2. In addition case studies of Task 4.2 will directly interact with WP3 to ensure the applicability of developed projections of weather extremes.

We will undertake research into attribution of climate versus non-climatic (e.g. population growth and socio- economic development) drivers as benchmark to analyse the trends in hydro-meteorological risks and demonstrate where climate risks will be amplified in Europe in the near term. Finally, the service products of the European Prediction System (e.g., hydro-meteorological hazards and developed indicators) will be corroborated with and by end users and stakeholders applying an agile approach.

Objectives

This work package will pursue the following main objectives:

  • Conduct user needs assessment of the EUCP System.
  • Develop an ensemble-based outlook of trends in pan European hydro-meteorological hazards for the
    near term (~1-40 year).
  • Develop sectoral and cross-sectoral indicators to assess future hydro-meteorological risks (e.g., flash
    flood, river flood, storm surge, drought, heat waves) at various spatial scales relevant to end users in support of monitoring SDGs 13 and 6 for the near term (~1-40 year).
  • Advance climate and non-climatic attribution of hydro-meteorological events and impacts at various spatial scales focussing on indicators defined in Task 4.2.
  • Develop an event catalogue of past and future impacts for various sectors.
  • Validate usability (agile approach) of the EUCP service products with and by end users (public
    sector, private sector, science and the general public).