EUCP Final Meeting, 4th – 6th May 2022

EUCP Updates

EUCP would like to invite you to join our final project event, online, during 4th – 6th May 2022!

Th EUCP project partners look forward to sharing our programme of presentations and panel discussions showcasing the progress that the project has made towards:

  • Developing seamless climate prediction approaches
  • Extracting more information from ensembles of projections
  • Understanding and exploiting high resolution simulations of extremes


Register to join here.


EUCP Final meeting full programmeDownload the programme here

Wed 4th May
8.45 BST

(9.45 CEST)


Teams session open

Google Doc for chat

9.00 BST

(10.00 CEST)

30 mins

Overview of the EUCP project Jason Lowe (Met Office)
9.30 BST

(10.30 CEST)

2 hrs (incl. 20 min break)

Session 1: Getting more from ensemble climate projections for future regional climates (Session chairs: Ben Booth and Chris Goddard)


Constraining regional projections: Why we do it, what we have learnt and where do we take this next? – Ben Booth (Met Office) – 20mins


Constrained European projections in CMIP5 and CMIP6 – Lukas Brunner (ETHZ) – 15 mins


Do constraints add value? Quantifying skill using out-of-sample assessments – Chris O’Reilly (University of Oxford/University of Reading) – 15 mins


Estimating the impacts of climate change for European river basins using performance-based model weighting – Frederiek Sperna Weiland (Deltares) – 15 mins


(20 min tea break)


Storylines across EUCP – Chris Goddard (Met Office) – 20 mins


Event-based storylines:  the heavy convective rainfall event in Copenhagen, 2011 – Dominic Matte (UCPH) – 15 mins

11.30 BST

(12.30 CEST)

30 mins

Session 1 Panel discussion

Can we offer improved regional information for Europe through constrained projection ranges? Can storylines approaches be ‘scaled up’ to meet the needs of a wide range of users?


Chair: Ben Booth (Met Office) Panel Members: Frederiek Sperna Weiland (Deltares)/Peter Greve (ISASA), Fai Fung (Met Office), Karin van der Wiel (KNMI)

  Event Photo for Everybody!
12.05 BST

(13.05 CEST)


EUCP products – data catalogue and storyboards

Peter Kalverla, Netherlands eScience Centre

12:25 BST

(13.25 CEST)

Lunch and Ice breaker


Thurs 5th May
8.45 BST

(9.45 CEST)

Teams session open

Google doc for chat

9.00 BST

(10.00 CEST)

55 mins

Session 2: Improvements in decadal forecasting (Session chairs: Paco Doblas-Reyes and Panos Athanasiadis)


Forecast quality assessment of multi-model decadal predictions – Carlos Delgado (BSC) – 10 mins


Recommendations for future development of decadal prediction system – Panos Athanasiadis (CMCC) – 10 mins


Decadal predictability and prediction: the need for improved understanding – Doug Smith (Met Office) – 20 mins


Applications of decadal predictions from C3S_34c and EUCP – Julia Lockwood (Met Office) – 15 mins

9.55 BST

(10.55 CEST)

20 mins

10.15 BST

(11.15 CEST)

50 mins

Session 3: Temporal Merging across prediction and projection timescales (Session chairs: Antje Weisheimer and Dan Befort)


Towards consistent observational constraints on predictions and projections – Gabi Hegerl (University of Edinburgh) – 20 mins


Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions – Dan Befort (University of Oxford) – 15 mins


Constraining climate projections with decadal predictions to obtain seamless climate information for the next several decades and improve the accuracy of near-term climate change estimates – Markus Donat (BSC) – 15 mins

11.05 BST

(12.05 CEST)

1hr 25 mins

Session 2 and 3 Extended Panel discussion

Do we need seamless predictions or do we need seamless information?


Chair: Gabi Hegerl (U Edinburgh) Panel Members: Antje Weisheimer (U Oxford), Francisco Doblas-Reyes (BSC), Panos Athanasiadis (CMCC), Doug Smith (Met Office), Wolfgang Mueller (MPI)

12.30 BST

(13.30 CEST)


Lunch break and ice breaker
13.30 – 15:00 BST

(14.30 – 16.00 CEST)

1hr 30 mins

Poster session

Opportunity for informal discussion and posters in online session.

Posters will be available for browsing throughout the event, with Jamboards to gather any comments/questions throughout the meeting.


Fri 6th May
8.45 BST

(9.45 CEST)

Teams session open

Google doc for Chat

9.00 BST

(10.00 CEST)

2 hrs (incl. 20 min break)

Session 4: Convection permitting simulations for Europe and their application (Session chairs: Danijel Belusic and Carol McSweeney)


What do we learn from the FPS ALP-3 multi-model CP-RCM experiment? – Nikolina Ban (ETHZ/UIBK) – 20 mins


Future changes in high impact events in convection-permitting models and next steps – Lizzie Kendon (Met Office) – 20 mins


Added value of high-resolution climate models, and how to blend their information with coarse resolution climate model results.

Geert Lenderink (KNMI) – 15 mins


Convection in future winter storms over northern Europe – Segolene Berthou (Met Office) – 15 mins


(20 min break)


Alpine flood impacts based on convection permitting projections – Marjanne Zander (Deltares) – 15 mins


Convective permitting simulations for European Outermost Regions – Hylke de Vries (KNMI) – 15 mins

11.00 BST

(12.00 CEST)

30 mins

Session 4 Panel discussion

How do we get the most value from high resolution projection information?


Chair: Filippo Giorgi (ICTP) Panel Members: Albrecht Weerts (Deltares), Lizzie Kendon (Met Office), Geert Lenderink (KNMI), Nikolina Ban (ETHZ/UIBK), Andreas Prein (UCAR)

11.30 BST

(12.30 CEST)

15 mins

Feedback from final EUCP Multi-User Forum event – Jens Christensen (NBI)
11.45 BST

(12.45 CEST)

45 mins

Final Panel discussion with final remarks


Where next for European climate prediction information?


Chair: Chris Hewitt (Met Office) Panel Members: Jason Lowe (Met Office), Francisco Doblas-Reyes (BSC), Richard Tavares (EC project officer), Freja Vamborg (C3S)

13.00 – 14.00 BST

(14.00 – 15.00 CEST)

EUCP Social – QUIZ!

Bring along your lunch or coffee for a chance to relax a little with EUCP colleagues


EUCP final Event Poster Session

Thursday 5th May, 13.30-15:00 BST (14.30-16.00 CEST)

Join here: online


View Posters throughout the meeting on this page (Please register for the event to receive the password)


Poster Session Part 1 (13.30-14.10 BST, 14.30-15.10 CEST)

1 Christine McKenna University of Leeds The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation for projections of winter mean precipitation in Europe
2 Marianna Adinolfi (speaker/presenter), Mario Raffa and Paola Mercogliano CMCC Achievements through the use of convection permitting climate simulations over different domains run from CMCC in the context of the EUCP project
3 Dragana Bojovic and Eulàlia Baulenas Barcelona Supercomputing Center Usability of EUCP service products for end users
4 Dario Nicolì CMCC Predicting Climate Change over the multi-annual range: a perspective from CMCC Decadal Prediction System
5 Dominic Matte Ouranos The role of global warming on a cloudburst event depicted with a convective permitting ensemble forecast model
6 Èrica Martínez-Solanas ISGlobal Projections of temperature-attributable mortality in Europe: a time series analysis in 147 contiguous regions in 16 countries


Poster Session Part 2 (14.20-15.00 BST, 15.20-16.00 CEST)

1 Marcos Quijal-Zamorano ISGlobal Forecast of temperature-attributable mortality at lead times of up to 15 days for a very large ensemble of European regions
2 Josep Cos Barcelona Supercomputing Center CMIP5 and CMIP6 projected Mediterranean climate change hotspots and the consequences of weighting by performance and independence
3 Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali et al Barcelona Supercomputing Center Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector
4 Bo Christiansen Danish Meteorological Institute Estimating the significance of the added skill from initializations
5 Ben Booth Met Office Hadley Centre Prototyping probabilistic projections for Europe
6 Ahmed Abdelnour, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Albrecht Weerts and Remko Uijlenhoet TU Delft / Deltares Bias-correction and Weighting of EURO-CORDEX Climate Simulations to Assess Climate Change Impacts in the Rhine River
7 Sebastian K. Müller Earth System Physics, ICTP The Climate Change Response of Heavy Precipitation Events in the Alps and in the Mediterranean