Publications

Global distribution of nearshore slopes with implications for coastal retreat + ASSOCIATED OA DATASET

Publications

Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Gaytan-Aguilar, S., and Ranasinghe, R.: Global distribution of nearshore slopes with implications for coastal retreat, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1515–1529, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019 Abstract Nearshore slope, defined as the cross-shore gradient of…

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Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting

Publications

Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Marius Zumwald, Reto Knutti 2019 Environ. Res. Lett. 14 124010 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab492f Abstract Uncertainty in model projections of future climate change arises due to internal variability, multiple possible emission scenarios, and different model responses to anthropogenic…

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Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution

Publications

Bellprat, O., Guemas, V., Doblas-Reyes, F. et al. Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution. Nat Commun 10, 1732 (2019) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09729-2 Abstract Climate change is shaping extreme heat and rain. To what degree human activity has increased the…

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A Framework to Determine the Limits of Achievable Skill for Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictions

Publications

Liu, Y., M.G. Donat, A.S. Taschetto, F.J. Doblas‐Reyes, L.V. Alexander and M.H. England Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Volume124, Issue6, 27 March 2019, Pages 2882-2896 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029541 Abstract In interannual to decadal predictions, forecast quality may arise from the initial state…

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Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset

Publications

Manzanas, R., Gutiérrez, J.M., Bhend, J. et al. Clim Dyn (2019) 53: 1287. AbstractThis work presents a comprehensive intercomparison of different alternatives for the calibration of seasonal forecasts, ranging from simple bias adjustment (BA)—e.g. quantile mapping—to more sophisticated ensemble recalibration…

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Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe

Publications

Rodrigues, L.R.L., Doblas-Reyes, F.J. & Coelho, C.A.S. Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe. Clim Dyn 53, 7305–7320 (2019) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4140-4 Abstract A Bayesian method known as the Forecast Assimilation (FA) was used to calibrate…

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Robust skill of decadal climate predictions

Publications

Smith, D.M., Eade, R., Scaife, A.A. et al. Robust skill of decadal climate predictions. npj Clim Atmos Sci 2, 13 (2019) doi:10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y Abstract There is a growing need for skilful predictions of climate up to a decade ahead. Decadal climate…

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Winter tourism under climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation

Publications

Spandre, P., François, H., Verfaillie, D., Pons, M., Vernay, M., Lafaysse, M., George, E., and Morin, S.: Winter tourism under climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation, The Cryosphere, 13, 1325–1347,…

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Investigating the effects of Pacific sea surface temperatures on the wind drought of 2015 over the United States

Publications

Llorenç Lledó Omar Bellprat Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes Albert Soret Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Volume123, Issue10, 27 May 2018, Pages 4837-4849 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028019 Abstract During the first quarter of 2015 the United States experienced a widespread and extended episode of low…

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Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4

Publications

Raül Marcos, Nube González-Reviriego, Verónica Torralba, Albert Soret, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4 Climate Dynamics, 2019, Volume 52, Number 5-6, Page 3307 DOI:…

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