Description of work
WP3 will develop and utilise seven state-of-the-art regional climate models at convection permitting resolutions (or CP-RCMs; RegCM4-NH [UNESCO ICTP], HARMONIE [SMHI, DMI, KNMI], REMO [HZG], UKMO-RCM [Met Office], WRF-ORCHIDEE [CNRS/IPSL], AROME [CNRS/CNRM], COSMO- CLM [ETH Zürich, CMCC]) to produce a large portfolio of simulations of high impact weather events for an historical period (1980-2015) and a near future time period (1-40 years). Two approaches will be pursued: (i) the CP-RCMs will be run at 1.5-3 km resolution for continuous multi-decadal simulations over a common domain covering the pan-Alpine region; (ii) extreme events of different types will be simulated throughout the pan-European region via short, event-based experiments. Changes in structure, characteristics and frequency of high impact events will be assessed, along with relevant underlying processes An in depth model validation will be carried out against high-resolution observation datasets. The data will be provided to WP4 for translation into hazard and risk information for targeted end-users.
This work package will provide a demonstration of the value of the EUCP system through the investigation of high-impact extreme weather events. The specific objectives of this work package are:
- To develop a simulation strategy for validating CP-RCMs and for generating a comprehensive portfolio of extreme event simulations for the historical period (1980-2015) and the near term future (~1-40 years), including continuous decadal-scale simulations over a focus domain (a pan-Alpine region) and event-based simulations at the pan-European level.
- To develop and optimise the CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact weather events by employing simulations of observed extreme events in the historical period.
- To simulate high impact weather events for the historical period and the near term future and to assess changes in the characteristics and frequency of high impact events for the next decades.
- To generate a portfolio of high impact weather events, suitably processed for use in other WPs.